NFL Preview: Raiders and Broncos
By Kevin Carhill


We finish off the AFC with Nor Cal’s own Oakland Raiders:


Oakland Raiders: As usual, it’s hard to handicap the Raiders because of the circus that surrounds them. Still, .500 probably gets you the division, so there is a minute glimmer of hope in the East Bay.

Tom Cable seemed to get as much out of this team as possible, but they are just constructed horribly. JaMarcus Russell cannot throw more than 20 yards down field. His best play is the roll out 15-yard dump off. But Al Davis wants to stretch the ball through the air. Despite the uproar, WR Darrius Heyward-Bey IS a better choice for Oakland than Michael Crabtree. I knew Darren McFadden was not going to be Adrian Peterson, but damn, I thought he’d at least be Tyrone Wheatley. At this point, I think they should trade McFadden while he still has value, and run with Justin Fargas and Michael Bush. The O line is capable, and the addition of Khalif Barns means there will be quality players across the entire front. IF, and it’s a HUGE if… but if JaMarcus Russell can be just an adequate QB, this team could easily score 20 points per game (they avg 16.4 last year).

Defensively, the back seven has talent, but they get no protection from the D-line. As usual, on paper the team is better than how they perform on the field. With Derrick Burgess, Gerard Warren, Kirk Morrison and Thomas Howard on the front seven, it’s inexcusable for the Raiders to be as garbage as they were against the run last year. They gave up 159.7 ypg and 4.7 ypc. But it seems Warren and Tommy Kelly did what Warren Sapp did: take the money and tank it.

The bottom line is: It’s impossible for this team to live up to its potential because this organization lacks leadership. However, if the Raiders can get off to a good start, they might be motivated enough to give a better effort through the season. That being said, the chances of Oakland improving depends solely on the development of Russell, which is why I give the Raiders a very small chance of improving their record from last year.

Draft: The Raiders do such a horrible job at developing talent. Oh, they can draft talented guys, but too many of them wither away and amount to nothing. The perfect example is Robert Gallery, who has actually REGRESSED with his time in Oakland. The Raiders have had stars like: Michael Huff, Phillip Buchanon, Gallery, Fabian Washington, Andrew Walter, JaMarcus Russell and of course McFadden, who were all strong prospects but have struggled to make it in the NFL as part of the Raiders program. So what do I think of this year’s draft? I feel sorry for Heyward-Bey, Matt Shaughnessy, Louis Murphy and Slade Norris who I otherwise would say have a bright future in the league.

Fantasy spin: Well the Raiders have run the ball very well the past three years, although they do lose a tremendous lead blocker in FB Justin Griffith. Still, I think Fargas is worth taking as a #2 RB, and Bush is worth taking as a reserve back (due to Fargas’ injury history). McFadden is probably the biggest boom or bust pick in this year’s fantasy draft. I say take a chance on him in the late rounds. I would rather roll the dice on him than on a rookie RB. Defensively Kirk Morrison is one of the most underrated LB’s in the NFL. In his four NFL seasons, he has never gotten fewer than 116 tackles (and that was his rookie year). He’s also good for a couple of int’s on the year. Last year’s rookie DE Trevor Scott got 5 sacks. If the Raiders are competitive, he could get more opportunities. Save him for late. OR, if you have an auto-draft league, go back and pick him up as a FA reserve.


Denver Broncos: I’ll never understand why coaches make wholesale changes just to bring in “their guys.” Bill Parcells won 2 Super Bowls with the Giants using a 3-4 D, but when he took over Dallas, he maintained the 4-3 scheme until he got the right players to make the switch. Enter Josh McDaniels. Apparently a 25 year old Pro Bowl QB who threw for 4,500 yards and led an offense that averaged 23.1 ppg, 279.4 ypg, 4.8 rush ypc, 22.1 1st downs per game, 47.5 third down percentage and only gave up 12 sacks… well that’s just not good enough. Apparently McDaniels thinks he can change the offensive system and IMPROVE the offense with Kyle Orton… stunning.

Needless to say, with Cutler gone, and WR Brandon Marshall seemingly on the way out (or even if he does stay) the offense is going to take a MAJOR plunge. The Broncos have also produced a solid run game using the zone blocking scheme, but that’s going away too. LT Ryan Clady is a stud. But I wonder if the rest of the line is going to be exposed. I wonder if Denver can produce a 1,000 yard rusher? They did draft Knowshon Moreno and last year rookie RB Ryan Torain looked good before falling to injury. But I don’t think either of these guys can carry the offense, or eclipse the 1,000 yard mark.

Well, if the offense is going to suck ass, then the defense has to carry the day. Last year the D was embarrassing. They gave up 28 ppg… TWENTY EIGHT POINTS PER GAME (and yet they team still finished 8-8. Why? How about that offense!) They also gave up 5.0 ypc rush against, only tallied 6 interceptions and had a minus 17 in the turnover ratio. So the wonderful Josh McDaniels who ran off Jay Cutler, brings in… Brian Dawkins and Andra Davis…

No, seriously.

I love Dawkins, but the man is 35 years old, and probably only has a year or two left. Andra Davis is solid, but how staunch was that Cleveland Browns’ run D last year? Oh, and I almost forgot, now Mike Nolan will bring his 3-4/4-3 I-don’t-know-what-douche-I’m-doing defense to Denver. It didn’t work in San Francisco, and don’t forget, he was the DC in Baltimore between Marvin Lewis and Rex Ryan… yea, the Raven’s weren’t quite that dominate then. Nolan is such a bad coach, that even if McDaniels had fixed the D line, the Broncos would STILL be horrible on defense.

The bottom line: It’s quite possible the Broncos will be the worst team in the NFL this year.

Draft: Knowshon Moreno should be a very good, all around RB. He is compared to Michael Westbrook, but Moreno isn’t going to have the support around him that Westbrook does to flourish. DE Robert Ayers concerns me. He was a guy who no one talked about until late in the draft process, and the he shot up the charts. Most of those guys turn out to be busts. Alphonso Smith is a good, but short CB. That means he’ll end up as a dime back as best. I like QB Tom Brandstater, but I have a feeling that McDaniels will get fired, and then the “developmental 3rd string QB” is going to get cut before he has a chance to establish himself.

Fantasy spin: OMG. This might be the worst team to choose picks from. Brandon Marshall should be able to tally some stats regardless of who’s at QB, but he’s a back up WR at best. I would take a chance on Moreno late; he should be able to get close to 800 rushing yards and 300 receiving yards on the year. Defensively, the Broncos figure to be behind in a lot of games, so as good as Champ Bailey is, I don’t know that he’s gong to get many chances to get int’s. DJ Williams is a tackling machine. And Elvis Dumervil is a good sleeper pick, as he could touch double digit sacks as an OLB… Oh wait, I almost forgot, Mike Nolan REFUSES to make his pass rushing specialist actually blitz (see: Manny Lawson). Never mind on Dumervil.


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NFL Preview: Chargers and Chiefs
By Kevin Carhill


Well, one more division to go in the AFC, and we saved the worst for last. Ladies and gentlemen: the AFC West:


San Diego Chargers: Norv Turner is not a strong head coach, the D is old and gives up big plays, they lose Igor Olshansky, Jammal Williams is old and injury prone, Antonio Gates, Shawne Merriman and LaDanianan Tomlinson are coming off injuries and might never again be the same players, and they did very little to improve an 8-8 team that only made the playoffs because the Broncos collapsed in the final month of the season… and it doesn’t really matter.

Last year the Chargers were 5-1 in the division, and this year they could be 6-0. Which means they only to need to go 2-8 outside the division, and they’ll be in the playoffs again. This is now Philip Rivers’ team, and even without Gates, they should be able to put up points. Last year they avg 27.4 ppg and 45.9% on third down conversions. Whatever they might lose in Gates’ production they should pick up in the development of Vincent Jackson.

The D is declining, but it’s good enough to keep them in games. They fired DC Ted Cotrell and hired Ron Rivera. The Chargers D should be more aggressive on that side of the ball now, so there could be an improvement even without a talent infusion. Shawne Merriman comes back, but there were reports that he really did some major damage to his knee by trying to play on it last year. I actually think he’ll be ok. He’s not the player he was on steroids, but he’s still a quality pass rushers. He and Shaun Phillips are a good tandem.

The bottom line: The chances of the Chargers making the playoffs are extremely high, as it seems they will win this division by default. Don’t be fooled however, this is a team on the verge of a major rebuilding project.

Draft: As much as I want to kick AJ Smith in his fat pompous face… he is one hell of a talent scout. I really like OG Louis Vasquez, and he could find his way into the starting lineup by years end. Larry English will be a nice rotational player with Philips and Merriman, but I don’t think he’ll be as good as either of them.

Fantasy Spin: Select LaDainian Tomlinson at your own risk. Running backs don’t really have “bounce-back” years. I depending on the size of your league, I wouldn’t draft Tomlinson until the mid rounds. I have LT my #17th ranked RB this year. I consider Philip Rivers to be an elite QB who should be taken early. I would also draft Vincent Jackson over Antonio Gates. Now because TE is a very shallow position, Gates still has draft value. But his health over the last two seasons is a major concern to me. Defensively, S Eric Weddle has become an elite player with his 127 tackle season last year. He’s had 1 int and 1 sack in each of his first two NFL seasons. Weddle is an all around playmaker in the Troy Polamalu mold. Shaun Phillips and Shawne Merriman are solid #2 LB’s. And don’t be afraid to take Antonio Cromartie. Teams avoided him last year, and he also returns kicks.


Kansas City Chiefs: If there is a team that can rise up and take the division from San Diego, it might be the Chiefs. This is a semi-talented team who vastly underperformed under Herm Edwards.

They have a new head coach in Todd Haley, who likes to run a well-balanced O, but he has shown that he’ll adjust to his personnel. The O-line is in pretty good shape. Last year the run game avg 4.8 ypc, and that was with Larry Johnson having a mediocre year. Jamaal Charles is developing into a solid weapon out of the backfield. KC also picked up highly coveted QB Matt Cassell, but outside of Dwayne Bowe, who is he going to throw to?

Defensively, the team is changing to a 3-4, and that could be a problem. Remember Dwayne Robertson? He was a top 5 pick by the Jets who many though was going to be the next Warren Sapp? Only Mangini came in and switched to a 3-4 D and then Robertson became a man out of place. He put on weight, lost his speed and quickness, and then got cut from the Broncos last year. Will Glen Dorsey suffer the same fate? Dorsey is NOT a nose tackle. He’s an under tackle. His career is potentially ruined by this move. However, it could make Tamba Hali a Pro Bowler. And they need it, BAD. Last year the Chief’s defense only had 10 team sacks. TEN… for the whole team!

The bottom line: The Chiefs are moving in the right direction. But there are too many questions for me to say they’re going to finish above .500. How will Dorsey do in the 3-4? Can they absorb the loss of Tony Gonzalez? But most importantly, is Matt Cassell the next Scott Mitchell? For that, I say KC will be more competitive, but no playoffs for them.

Draft: I think Tyson Jackson is an excellent 3-4 DE. You might never hear from him again, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be doing his job, it’s just the nature of the position. I also think K Ryan Succop has a chance to solidify the PK duties. It’s been a revolving door in KC for a while now.

Fantasy Spin: I would spend a late round pick on RB Jamaal Charles. He could be a big time sleeper this year. I also like Dwayne Bowe. Considering the QB issues the team had last year, Bowe pulled down 86 catches for 1022 yards and 7 TDs. He’s a legit #1 WR. On D, I really like Tamba Hali in the 3-4 scheme. He should touch double digit sacks. Derrick Johnson is a great all around MLB, and S Bernard Pollard led the team in tackles.


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NFL Preview: Texans and Jaguars
By Kevin Carhill


Today we finish off the AFC South with a look at Houston and Jacksonville:


Houston Texans: Every year seems like the year the Texans are going to break through. Last year they were 2-6 in the division, and still finished with an 8-8 record, so there is some hope that this could finally be the year they make the playoffs.

The run game came alive with Steve Slaton, but at 5’ 7”, he is not an every down back. I really like FA rookie RB Jeremiah Johnson, so there is potential for a nice combo backfield. I think the team is going to miss QB Sage Rosenfels. I think Matt Schaub got a lot of credit for the team stats that Rosenfels put up. I also think Rosenfels was unfairly labeled a fumbler due to one primetime televised game.

The D has talent, but it’s very young. They gave up 4.5 rush ypc and only tallied 25 sacks (with Mario Williams getting 12 of those). If 2nd year DT Frank Okam can step up this year, it could change the entire defense. At 6’ 5” and 340 pounds, he needs to be the run stuffer this team DESPERATELY needs. The return of CB Dunta Robinson is big. He missed most of last year due to a knee injury. Prior to that, he was becoming one of the premier corners in the NFL.

The bottom line: I’d like to say this is the season Houston becomes a Wild Card team. However I can more easily see a season of regression, than a playoff run. Head coach Gary Kubiack was reprimanded by the union during off season workouts, because he was running full contact drills with no pads during spring camp. So the big question is: does Kubiack have the respect of the locker room? I say no playoffs for Houston.

Draft: I actually think their best pick was the free agent rookie Jeremiah Johnson. I think he’s perfect for the zone blocking scheme Houston runs. I believe he’ll have a solid rookie season. OLB Brian Cushing and S Troy Nolan should be contributors, although probably on special teams at first. Other than that, I wasn’t real impressed with their selections this year.

Fantasy Spin: I would only use Texans players as #2 guys or to augment my roster. I’m not convinced the O-line can be anything other than adequate. Same goes for Matt Schaub. I like WR Andre Johnson and TE Owen Daniels, but I can easily see their numbers dip this year. Steve Slaton had a great rookie campaign, but I’m not convinced he’s for real. He was a bitch at West Virginia, sitting out every time he got hit hard. I don’t believe his small frame can stand up for 16 games. Houston might be the only team that has better defensive fantasy studs than offense. Mario Williams is an elite DE, and DeMeco Ryans is an elite LB. I also like Dunta Robinson to have a nice rebound year this year.


Jacksonville Jaguars: Word out of Jacksonville was that the only reason Jack Del-Jackass has a job, is that due to the bad economy, the owners didn’t want to buy him out. Last season’s 5-11 record wasn’t a hiccup; it was the culmination of bad draft classes and Del Rio running off any talented player who acts like a leader (in the last three seasons the Jags have cut: Byron Leftwhich, Mike Peterson, Deon Grant, Marcus Stroud, and Fred Taylor).

This year, they bring in Torry Holt (what was Holt thinking?) but that’s not going to help much. Jacksonville can only run. They have no consistency on O. The O-line cannot pass block, only run block, as evidence of their 42 sacks given up last year. David Garrard is a good QB, but he’s not an elite QB. He needs weapons around him. Essentially the Jags offense will look a lot like the Rams O that Holt just left.

Even if the offense improves on its 18.9 ppg, I don’t see how they improve on their D, which gave up 22.9 ppg and 4.0 rush ypc against. Word out of Jax is that they’ll start tinkering with the 3-4 front. So while they might be able to cover up their lack of D-line talent, who are the pass rushers going to be? Or for that matter, who is going to be the second MLB? Brian Iwuh? Thomas Williams?

The bottom line: I give the Jags almost no chance of making a run to the playoffs. This should be the last season for Del Rio, and possibly their GM too. Expect rumors of Jax to LA to pick up some steam this year.

Draft: Once again the Jags try to draft in volume. Last year they spent their first two picks on two DE’s who combined for 6 sacks in 32 combined games. In 2007 they had 11 selections with only S Reggie Nelson making the starting lineup. This year they do it again. They drafted two offense tackles (to go with the four already on the roster, including two veteran starters who they spend money on in free agency a year ago. Not to mention their starting LT who they let walk this year). Then they took 3 WR’s in the back half of the draft. Now, I do like their first pick OT Eugene Monroe. He’s a sound all around OT, but has some durability concerns. WR Jarett Dillard could be a good #4 “hands” receiver. And there were a lot of people really high on RB Rashad Jennings, a 7th round selection out of Liberty. I haven’t seen very many Liberty games, but I do want to see what Jennings is capable of.

Fantasy Spin: It’s Maurice Jones-Drew and… well, no one really. Torry Holt caught 64 passes for 796 yards and 3 TDs. I think he might get 70-800-5 this year. But not much more. There’s nothing else worth drafting on this team.


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NFL Preview: Colts and Titans
By Kevin Carhill


If anyone can rival the Patriots in the AFC next year, it will be the . We continue our preview of the 2009 NFL season with the AFC South:


Indianapolis Colts: Very interesting that when Jim Caldwell took over as head coach, he fired a lot of the defensive staff. Some of the reports coming out of Indy was that Dungy was too loyal, and should have made changes on that side of the ball a few years ago.

It should be interesting to see how much more aggressive and improved the Colts D is; especially if one of the two 300 lbs DT’s can emerge early (USC’s Fili Moala or Michigan’s Terrance Taylor). The Colts D has gotten by with a bit of smoke and mirrors. Even during their Super Bowl year, the team was weak against the run in the regular season. It’s never a good thing when a 5’8” safety is your best run stopper. Last year was no different. Despite playing with a lead in most games, the Colts gave up 122.9 rush yards per game and 4.2 ypc. And despite the super star names on the D line, the Colts only managed 30 sacks last year.

As good as the coaching changes may be for the Colt’s D, they could be detrimental to the offense. Tom Moore and Howard Mudd are retiring early (due to a change in the collective bargaining agreement), and while Tom Moore’s “offensive theories” to Peyton Manning should be absorbed, Howard Mudd was one of the best O-line coaches the NFL’s had in the last 15 years. They lose Marvin Harrison, but he hasn’t played much the last 2 years anyways. Rookie RB Donald Brown should be a good compliment to Joseph Addai and Indy should see a much more balanced offensive attack. Last year they only averaged 79.6 rush yards per game, compared to 255.9 pass yards.

The bottom line: Sometimes change is good, and the Colts could be the 2nd most talented team in the NFL. IF, the O-line can keep it together, we could see the best Colts team since their Super Bowl run in 2006.

Draft: The Colts have done an amazing job of drafting in the last 10 ten years. So even though not many people have heard the name Donald Brown, expect him and Addai to produce like Edgerrin James and Dominic Rhodes. WR Austin Collie was extremely underrated. He’s 6’2” and runs a 4.45 forty with good hands and solid route running ability (he’s also an El Dorado Hills product). He could be the next Rod Smith or Jimmy Smith. Of course the key to this draft are the two big DT Filli Moala and Terrance Taylor. I was not at all impressed with Taylor whenever I saw Michigan Play. I think Moala can be an improvement in the middle for the Colts, but I don’t see him making any Pro Bowls any time soon.

Fantasy Spin: Another fantasy gold mine. Peyton, Wayne, Clark, and Gonzalez are all outstanding picks, and Addai and Brown will be quality #2 RBs. Defense is a little more tricky. I think Dwight Freeney’s name doesn’t match his production. He’s too inconstant and his small frame could be catching up to him as he’s struggled with foot injuries the past few seasons. Same with Bob Sanders. He’s too injury prone to draft. Robert Mathis and Kelvin Hayden are better options to fill out your defensive roster. Safety Antonie Bethea had 101 tackles and 2 Ints last year.


Tennessee Titans: What 13-3 team has the best chance of falling below .500 this year? How about the Titans. Does anyone think they can score 23.4 ppg like they did last year with Kerry Collins? Collins isn’t going to improve. 2008 was his best year in seven seasons, and he only tallied 12 touchdowns, 2,676 yards and a 80.2 QB rating.

Also, can the defense absorb the loss the most productive DT in the NFL? No they can’t. Look what happened to the Chicago Bears when they lost Tank Johnson a few years ago. And Albert Haynesworth was MUCH more productive than Johnson was in Chicago.

The Titans are trying a new philosophy to fill out the roster. Instead of bringing in young players who have yet to break through, they are brining in players who have been cut or waved by more than one team in the last couple of seasons. The ideal is: these guys are clinging to their last chance of staying in the NFL, and they’ll be hungry and driven. Well, if that’s true, then maybe Kerry Collins to Craphonso Thorpe can be a deadly combo. But I’m not going to hold my breath. There’s a difference between a contributor, and foundation player.

The bottom line: This was a team that overachieved on offense last year. They lose the best player on their roster and the Vince Young saga could be a major distraction for a team that will now be faced with a first place schedule. I think the Titans will miss the playoffs.

Draft: I don’t know how good Tennessee is at evaluating talent. Just look at Vince Young and LeDale White. But they seem to draft in volume. It’s inevitable that SOMEONE is going to emerge. I like DT Sen’Derrick Marks, though he’ll probably have to have a go-around the league before he establishes himself. WR Kenny Britt could be a nice complimentary receiver, but I don’t see him ever being a #1. Keep an eye on LB Gerald McRath. He needs to get stronger, so he might only be a special teamer for a couple of years, but once he breaks into the line up, I think he’s going to be a staple on the linebacking unit for a long time.

Fantasy spin: I know LenDale White got 15 touchdowns last year, but I don’t trust him. I’ll only take him if he falls into the late-mid rounds. I really like Chris Johnson and think he’s a complete back who is going to get receptions and a couple of break-away 60-yard TD’s this year. Outside of that, there isn’t much on the offense. Perhaps Bo Scaife as a #2 TE. Defensively you can never go wrong with Keith Bulluck, one the best OLB in our generation. Outside of that, I would hold off on Kyle Vanden Bosch and Cortland Finnegan because without the pressure up the middle from Haynesworth, their production might fall off. Pick them up late, if at all. Safety Michael Griffin is developing into a rangy playmaker. Take him if your league scores well for all around defensive play.


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Sacramento Doesn’t Deserve Ricky Rubio
By Kevin Carhill


I imagine I was one of the many who thought that draft day could not have worked out any better for Sacramento when Ricky Rubio slid down to #4.

When Tyreke Evans’ name was called I can’t say I was surprised, due his name being floated around in the preceding weeks. But I was disappointed none the less.

Sacramento Fans Bite

NFL Preview: Dolphins and Jets
By Kevin Carhill


Today we finish up our preview of the AFC East:


Miami Dolphins: Last year the Dolphins took the Wild Cat offense and a last place schedule and turned it into an 11-5 record. Now other teams have a had an entire off season to work on defending the Wild Cat, and other than the draft, Miami didn’t do much to improve it’s team.

Last year Miami went 4-2 within the division. If they want to repeat that, they must improve defensively. They gave up 4.2 rush ypc, yet only gave up 19.8 points per game; a sign of the “bend don’t break” D. That’s a fine way to be competitive, but championship teams make plays, and force the opposing offense to adjust to them. They need to improve their run D to increase their margin of error in the other facets of the game. By that I mean, if your D is always playing with their back against the Red Zone, it becomes increasingly difficult to absorb turnovers and penalties on offense and special teams. I don’t see where Miami has improved their front seven.

The worst unit on the entire team was the secondary. Despite 40 team sacks, Miami yielded 227.8 pass yards per game. Enter rookie CB Vontae Davis and CB Sean Smith. So while the overall athleticism of the secondary has improved, there will be a learning curve that will result in mistakes, which equals points given up. They also added Gibril Wilson at Safety and he will help, not just as a mentor, but he’s an all around quality player.

The talk of the NFL world last year was of course the advent of the Wild Cat offense. Which brings into focus the QB position. When was the last time Chad Pennington had two quality back-to-back seasons? Hell, Pennington has never played in 16 games in back-to-back seasons. If he falters, is Chad Henne ready to step in? How many snaps will Pat White get? If he’s effective, will Miami try to run a two quarterback system? I think they will, and I also think it will be effective to a degree.

Miami added Center Jake Grove, which is an upgrade, but the run game was already strong.

The bottom line: Miami benefited from the surprise element of the Wild Cat, a last place schedule and a plus 17 turnover ratio. None of those things figure to be in their favor this season. The future is extremely bright in Miami, and there is no doubt in my mind that Parcells and Sparano will have the Dolphins as Super Bowl contenders a hell of a lot sooner and a hell of a lot longer than the Dallas Cowboys. But I don’t see a return trip to the playoffs for them this year.

Draft: CB’s Vontae Davis and Sean Smith are the future of the secondary. Both are aggressive and athletic. USC WR Patrick Turner was such a disappointment. So much potential, and not much domination. I think WR Brain Hartline could overtake Turner for that 4th WR position. Pat White is the big X factor. He’s too small to play Wild Cat QB on a regular basis, but he’s going to contribute to this team. Either at QB, or WR.

Fantasy Spin: Ronnie Brown is a great RB, but his numbers will dip this year, as he’ll lose the points he acquired taking snaps from center. Joey Porter should get a good look at double digit sacks, and Channing Crowder is a tackling machine. Outside of that, it might be slim pickings on an offensively conservative team. Perhaps snatch Pat White in a keeper league incase he develops as a solid passer. Ted Gin Jr. is worth drafting to fill out your WR corps as he returns kicks and should see and up-tick in production, as this is the “magical” third year for him.


New York Jets: A lot of things went right for the Jets last year. They averaged 4.7 ypc in the run game, and 3.7 ypc against on run D. They went 4-2 against the division and defended home turf. Yet, they failed to make the playoffs. Now they have a new head coach, and a rookie QB. I think firing Eric Mangini was an overreaction. Taking a first time head coach is always a gamble, and if Rex Ryan doesn’t pan out, then this team just put themselves out of the playoffs for the next six years.

Unless Mark Sanchez is the next Peyton Manning, the Jets won’t improve on their 9-7 record. The O-line is one of the best in the AFC, but they lost Laveranues Coles and K Mike Nugent (remember the angst on the faces of Jets fans when Nugent was drafted in the 2nd round? And now they let him walk in free agency). It doesn’t really matter if it’s Sanchez or Kellen Clemens under center, there’s no way the offense will be as potent as it was last year.

The defense could be better though. They added Bart Scott, Jim Leonhard and Lito Sheppard to a defense that was stout against the run, only giving up 94.9 yards per game and 3.7 ypc. They also tallied 41 sacks. However they gave up 22.3 points per game. The D might be improved, but with a transition on offense, if they are on the field longer, the points against might not drop.

The bottom line: The future is bright for the Jets. But Sanchez needs time to develop. Matt Ryan and Joe Flaco were rookies that led their teams to the playoffs, but history shows that’s highly unlikely to repeat itself.

Draft: Small, but excellent draft. Mark Sanchez could be Tony Romo type player (minus the fat girlfriends and attempts to make the US Open). Shonn Greene reminds me of Michael Turner. And Matt Slauson has a future at RG. Excellent job by the Jets.

Fantasy Spin: Thomas Jones is a good option for #1 RB. Either QB will need to be protected, and the O-line is excellent. Jones should have another excellent year. Darrelle Revis should be a good get if your team has int bonuses. Revis is a budding Pro Bowler and playing opposite Lito Sheppard means he’ll be protected and have an opportunity to make plays. Kerry Rhodes is a good all around player, so if your league rewards defense, he’s a solid pick to fill out your secondary. Calvin Pace was the leading sacker with 7.


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NFL Preview: Patriots and Bills
By Kevin Carhill


We started our preview coverage with last year’s Super Bowl champ, and now we go to, who I believe, is going to be this year’s Super Bowl favorites. Those lying cheating bastards from New England.


New England Patriots: I hate to say it, because I despise this organization from the owner to ball boy… but in my opinion, the New England Patriots will enter the 2009 season as the most talented team in the NFL. They are, and deserve to be, the favorites to win Super Bowl 43.

There are questions about the health of Tom Brady, that he may not be what he was before he got injured. But really, he doesn’t have to. All he has to do is be as good as Matt Cassel. Under Cassel, the Pats avg. 25.6 ppg, 365.5 total yards per game, 22.3 first downs per game, 43.2% third down conversions, 32:25 time of possession advantage, and only committed 57 penalties. That’s good enough to win the Super Bowl.

They lose OC Josh McDaniels, but I felt his offense was extremely one-dimensional, and he failed to utilize Laurence Maroney. They also add WR Joey Galloway, WR Greg Lewis, TE Alex Smith and RB Fred Taylor. So New England should have no problem moving the ball.

The key then becomes the defense, where stopping the run has become a problem for the Pats since they can’t cheat anymore. Last year they gave up 4.1 yards per carry.

They lose S Rodney Harrison, CB Ellis Hobbs, LB Mike Vrabel, LB Rosevelt Colvin, CB Deltha O’Neal and the most overrated player in the history of the NFL Junior Seau. But they started the defensive rebuilding project last year, so there are a number of young guys ready to step in. Just in case, the Pats signed: CB Leigh Bodden, CB Shawn Springs, re-unite with LB Tully Banta-Cain, and drafted 330 pound run stuffing rookie DT Ron Brace. This now becomes a talented and savvy squad that should improve. My only question now is: Who’s going to put pressure on the QB? Last year Adalius Thomas was their leading sack man with five.

The Patriots will have to travel to London in the middle of the season to play against Tampa Bay.

The bottom line: Now that they can’t cheat anymore, the Pats have had to acquire legitimate talent to contend. I’m still certain they’re cheating on one level or another, but the fact is New England is loaded this year. It would be a major upset if the Pats did not at least make the AFC title game.

Draft: I’m not very high on S Patrick Chung. I think of him like S Roy Williams. But I do love Ron Brace. There is not enough value put on run stuffing DT’s. I think they are equally as important as a franchise LT. Watch out for WR Brandon Tate. He won’t see the field much this year with Moss, Galloway and Welker. But Tate should be a very good player in this league for a long time. The other kid I love is DT Myron Pryor out of Kentucky, a 320-pounder with a high motor. He could develop into a Casey Hampton type player.

Fantasy Spin: Obviously the Pats are loaded with fantasy studs: Moss, Galloway, Welker, Brady, and Jerod Mayo. I would take a chance on Fred Taylor. Last year Sammy Morris got 7 TD’s on 156 carries. I think Taylor will assume the bulk of the touches, and he should be able to score more than that. Defensively, Bodden and Springs will make each other better, so take either of them if you get big points for ints. I would take Bodden if your league favors turnovers; otherwise take Springs because he supports the run better.


Buffalo Bills: Buffalo was 0-6 against their own division, and yet finished 7-9 overall. Owner Ralph Wilson is in his 90’s and has said he wants “one more run” at a Super Bowl. The Bills won’t get that, but a return trip to the playoffs is possible.

The big news in the off season was the free agent acquisition of Terrell Owens. A lot of people are predicting doomsday for Buffalo, but Owens’ track record is that he’ll be good for one year before blowing up. Buffalo’s offense average 4.2 rush ypc, yet they only averaged 17.9 first downs and a 39.9 in 3rd down percentage. With Owens to draw coverage away from Lee and Hardy, the pass attack should be more spread out. This will open up the run game for the dynamic Marshawn Lynch, and that will increase their first downs.

I do have some concerns about their O-line, especially the loss of Jason Peters. But the Bills have done an adequate job of developing their draft talent. Also, they made ZERO attempts at replacing Peters either in the draft or via free agency. So they at least, are confident in the unit already in place.

With the offense on the field longer, a semi-talented defense should see improvements. Last year the Bills gave up 121.6 yards rushing per game at 4.3 ypc. They once again were weak in the pass rush and only tallied 24, leading to a meager 10 ints. The results were a minus 8 in turnover ratio.

This will be the second year for veteran DT Marcus Stroud, who is a big part of the center of that D. Also MLB Paul Posluszny and CB Leodis McKelvin will be in their second years and Bills fans should expect fewer mistakes from both of them. With Stroud, Posluszny and LB Keith Ellison, I’m confident the run D will improve. But the pass rush will be dependent on rookie DE Aaron Maybin. Will he be able to have instant impact? Some say he’s too light in the ass to be dominating at this level. He will be used as a pass rushing specialist. But ANYTHING resembling pressure on the QB will go a long ways in helping this team. Last year their sack leader had four.

The bottom line: If Buffalo can play .500 or in their division, they’ll be in the playoffs.

Draft: The Bills draft classes don’t always look sexy, but they usually end up being solid contributors to the team. Aaron Maybin is sort of a boom-or-bust pick, but I think at worst he’ll end up like a KBG type player. C Eric Wood and OG Andy Levitre won’t get a lot of attention, but they’ll be part of this O-line for the next 10 years. CB Jairus Byrd should battle Ashton Youboty for the nickel spot next year. I also like rookie free agent CB Lydell Sargeant. He’s a bit small, but I think he can make this roster.

Fantasy Spin: I like Trent Edwards as a #1 QB option (especially if you like to draft RB’s first and the elite QB’s are off the board). Last year he passed for 2,699 yards at 65.5%. With Owens in the line up (who I would not draft until the mid rounds), I expect Lee Evans to blow up. Last year Evans caught 63 passes for 1017 yards and 3 TDs. I expect a 3,000 yard 18 TD season from Edwards, and an 80 catch 1200 yard season from Evans. I also now put Lynch in #1 RB status. He’ll miss the first 3 games due to suspension, but I believe he’ll still break the 1,000 yard mark and possibly touch 10 touchdowns. Defensively Posluszny would be a good #2 LB. Leodis McKelvin is a solid pick as he should benefit from playing across Terrence McGee and he returns kicks as well.


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NFL Preview Bengals and Browns
By Kevin Carhill


Completing our preview of the AFC North:


Cincinnati Bengals: Every year, there is a team that posted a sub .500 record, and then comes back the following year and wins 10-plus games. I think in the AFC, it could be the Bengals.

Last year their D improved, especially against the run. They avg 3.9 ypc against; even though they gave up 120 yards per game, that’s due to playing from behind and the number of attempts per game against them. The defensive unit should be even better with the addition of DT Tank Johnson. Say what you want to say about Johnson, but the Bears missed him, and I guarantee the Cowboys will miss him this year too.

The Bengals did not create very many turnovers. They had 12 interceptions, 12 forced fumbles and finished the year with a minus 2 turnover ratio. One glaring weakness of the D is the pass rush. Last year the entire team amassed 17 sacks.

Offensively Cincinnati struggled as they lost Carson Palmer for the year. Cedric Benson was a pleasant surprise in the final month of the season. They added Laveranues Coles to replace TJ Houshmandzadeh, which is almost a push…almost. One very big Achilles heel could be the O-line. If rookie Andre Smith is a bust, there is no playoff run for Cinci.

For the Bengals to get the turnaround I’m predicting for them, it will come from within the division. Last year they were a pathetic 1-5 against the division.

The Bottom line: We know Palmer can carry an offense by himself. If Benson can be Curtis Martin (that being a 1,000 yard rusher who averages 3.9 ypc) then the offense should be able to score. Add in a solid D, and the Bengals are my pick to take the last Wild Card spot in the AFC.

Draft: I have a lot of questions about Andre Smith. Not sure I would have drafted him that high. I love Rey Maualuga though. Can’t believe he dropped. I think he’s going to be another Al Wilson. Also, I think TE Chase Coffman and C Jonathan Luigs can be starters by this time next year.

Fantasy Spin: Because the Bengals were so horrible on offense, you should be able to get some solid playmakers a little later in the draft. Chad Johnson will still go high, but Laveranues Coles should encroach 90 catches with 1200 yards. I believe Palmer will come back strong. He should be good for 3,500 yards and 20 plus touchdowns. I would wait on Cedric Benson until the middle rounds, but he could very well be a strong #2 RB and finally live up to his draft status. But I need more than just four weeks of productivity to take a RB in the top half of the daft. Defensively Johnathan Joseph is the only player worth taking; and only if there’s a big bonus for turnovers.


Cleveland Browns: Hard to judge were the Browns are. They really struggled with their 3rd string QB last year… but then who wouldn’t?

The Browns were crushed in the division going 1-5, and couldn’t defend home going 1-7. They only scored 14.5 ppg due to their anemic pass O. Brady Quinn should immediately elevate the offense, even without Kellen Winslow. The young O-line could quickly become of the best in the AFC. So as long as Jamal Lewis stays healthy, the Browns should have a well-balanced attack that can compete with anybody.

But unless Quinn can line up and play defensive end, it’s going to be another long season for the Browns.

Of an overall weak unit, the biggest area the Browns need to improve is their run D. They gave up 151 yards per game and 4.5 ypc against. There is no evidence that the Browns D will be any better this year, as they did nothing to address the front seven and lost their best LB in Andre Davis.

The bottom line: Considering the Browns were 4-12 with a +5 turnover ratio, there is very little chance of Cleveland being in the hunt in December. They will never be a playoff team unless they fix their run D.

Draft: Alex Mack is good enough to start from day one, and stay there for the next 12 years. Despite some pre-draft criticism, Ohio State WR Brian Robiskie can be a staple in the Browns offense for the foreseeable future. And don’t be surprised if Clemson RB James Davis becomes a valuable cog for this team. I think he’s capable of getting 8-10 touches per game, and could be the eventual replacement to Jamal Lewis.

Fantasy Spin: If your league doesn’t penalize interceptions, take Brady Quinn as a #2 QB. If you have a keeper league, snag Quinn. He’s a legit starting NFL QB, who has proved he can move the team down field. Braylon Edwards will produce, but without Kellen Winslow, the added double teams could see his stats slip a bit. Steve Heiden should only be used as a “bye week” TE, and due to age and carries, I would not draft Jamal Lewis until late. Last year’s stats of 3.6 yards per carry and 4 TD’s are the beginning of a trend, not a hiccup. Consider Josh Cribbs only if your league scores special teams yards, not just TD’s.

Defensively, Kamerion Wimbley could be a late round sleeper as I think he’ll get double digit sacks this year. LB D’Qwell Jackson has 154 tackles last year, and S Brodney Pool is an all-around playmaker.


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NFL Preview: Steelers and Ravens
By Kevin Carhill


The countdown is on! August 9th is the first pre-season game of the NFL season! And for those who want to watch superior football, NCAA Football starts September 3rd (but more on them later).

We start our preview of the National Football League’s 89th season with its defending champ, the Pittsburgh Steelers:


Pittsburgh Steelers: I’m surprised that the Steelers were able to win the Super Bowl with a turnover prone QB and a make or break RB who is weak in short yardage. It just goes to show how dominant their defense was.

The Steelers defensive stats read: 13.9 points per game, 80.3 rush yards against, 3.3 yards per carry against, 50 sacks, and 90 pass deflections. Those are incredible stats. SO… can they do it again? They lose LB Larry Foote, CB Bryant McFadden and are still vulnerable to the occasional big pass play. But Pittsburgh has done a masterful job of drafting and developing talent. LB Lawrence Timmons should be the next star linebacker for the Steelers. Which is to say, there shouldn’t be much of a drop off.

Offense might be another story. Yes, they get back last year’s first round daft pick Rashard Mendenhall, and that should help their short yardage game. However they also lost O-linemen Marvel Smith, Kendall Simmons and WR Nate Washington. The right side of their O-line could be a weakness.

In his five years in the NFL, Ben Roethlisberger has averaged 13.8 interceptions to 20.2 touchdowns. Way short of the 2-1 ratio elite QB’s set as a goal. In fact, take away his 2007 season where he threw 32 touchdowns and Big Ben has never had more than 18 TD’s in a season. He’s a big wild card for the team.

The bottom line: I think the defense is good enough to win the division. I think Pittsburgh has been one of the most fortunate teams in the playoffs the last few seasons. I predict one-and-done for Pittsburgh.

Draft: Don’t expect to see any of their rookies make much of an impact this year. But given time, DT Ziggy Hood, OG Kraig Urbik, CB Keenan Lewis and C A.Q. Shipley should be starters within the next 3-4 years.

Fantasy Spin: Big Ben is good secondary choice for QB, or a first choice if your league doesn’t punish for interceptions. Willie Parker will lose touchdowns because Mendenhall should get the bulk of short yardage carries. Defensively, whoever is playing OLB is a good get (That would be James Harrison and LaMarr Woodley). And of course Polamalu is an elite safety in any league.


Baltimore Ravens: The Raven’s emerged as the Steelers biggest rival last year, knocking them off twice in the regular season; only to fall 23-14 to them in the AFC Championship game.

Perhaps not statically so, but I think the Ravens had the best D in the NFL last year. I think DT Haloti Ngata is one of the most underrated players in the entire league, and a legitimate D MVP candidate. But they did lose some key pieces. Starters S Jim Leonhard, CB Chris McAlister and LB Bart Scott are gone, as are key backups CB Corey Ivy and DE Marques Douglas. Not to mention their DC Rex Ryan. The D line is still one of the best in the NFL, but the back seven is left extremely thin. We all know that nobody gets through the NFL season unscathed, so I while I expect Baltimore to have a great D, I don’t expect them to dominate quite like they did last year.

This could expose their offense (who also lost starting center Jason Brown and saw RT Willie Anderson retire). QB Joe Flaco was very protected last year and I think he’s prime for a sophomore slump. As of this writing, they have not re-signed FB Lorenzo Neal, so their run game could take a step back too.

The bottom line: Baltimore has a bright future, and if I’m underrating Flaco, they have a very good chance of not only making the playoffs, but winning the division. However, I think they take a step back their year, and rebound next year.

Draft: One of the best GM’s in the league, Ozzie Newsome, keeps it real simple. I love OT Michael Oher and think he could end up being the best OT in this year’s class. MLB Jason Phillips won’t get much playing time behind Ray Lewis, but I think he has tremendous upside. It’s quite possible he will replace Lewis as the staring MLB by the 2011 season.

Fantasy Spin: I would stay away from the Raven’s offense as I think Joe Flaco is going to suffer a sophomore slump. Willis McGahee is a work horse, but he’s a #2 or #3 RB. He’s only eclipse 4.0 yards per carry twice in his career. Which means if the Raven’s aren’t in total control of a game, where McGahee can get 25 touches, Willis will struggle to top 100 yards per game. Also, he’s never scored more than seven TD’s in a season.


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MMA Is Not A Threat To Boxing
By Kevin Carhill


Two Saturday’s ago (June 13th), 48-year old Ray Mercer knocked out the former two-time UFC Heavyweight champion Tim Sylvia in ten seconds of the first round… TEN seconds. Not quite as long as Sasha Vujacic spends combing his hair in the morning.

Immediately boxing honk dusted off the fossils collecting on his shoulders and started jumping up and down saying, “See! Proof that boxers are more skilled than MMA Fighters!”

Loser. loo-zer. -noun: Tim Sylvia